Cheyenne, Wyo. — President Donald Trump’s promise to focus squarely on fossil fuels also includes praise for coal, a reliable but polluting energy source that has long been in decline.
Trump suggested this week that coal could help meet growing electricity demand from manufacturing and the large data centers needed for artificial intelligence.
“Nobody can destroy coal. No weather, no bombs – no nothing,” Trump told the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, via video link on Thursday. “And we have more coal than anyone.”
Yet energy experts say any boom for coal under Trump is likely to be temporary because natural gas is cheap and there is a sustainable market for renewable energy no matter who holds the White House.
“It’s been shown over the last three administrations that even the President of the United States can’t change the market, the trend of coal,” said Rob Godby, an economics professor at the University of Wyoming. “This may provide relief.”
Here’s a look at the outlook for coal during Trump’s second term:
AI will require more electricity
Efficiency gains have stabilized electricity demand in the US for 15 years, but that is changing. More manufacturing, more electric vehicles and the energy-hungry computing centers needed for artificial intelligence are set to put a strain on the system.
Electricity demand for data centers alone will grow 10-20% per year through 2030, while battery, solar cell and semiconductor manufacturing will require additional gigawatts of new electricity over the next four years, according to Chris of analyst firm Wood Mackenzie. Sepel predicted.
While the technology industry is accustomed to creating new products to meet changing demand, electric utilities are not. Planning power plants and transmission lines often takes decades.
“The Trump administration is a four-year administration. It’s really difficult for utilities to make investment decisions over a four-year period, Godby said.
A reprieve for some old coal plants
Trump issued executive orders this week calling for prioritizing energy development, such as removing regulations that hinder fossil fuel development.
That could lead to President Joe Biden’s repeal of power plant pollution rules and an end to some policies supporting renewable energy.
Environmentalists are concerned over the implications of climate change – electricity generation accounts for one-quarter of US carbon emissions, according to the EPA – but miners welcome the change.
Unlike solar and wind power, which are subject to the vagaries of sunlight and weather unless they are combined with battery storage, coal-fired power can run around the clock with only periodic downtime for maintenance. Proponents say nonstop power from coal meets the technology facilities’ needs.
But while tech companies that want off-the-grid power can invest in a “dirt-cheap” coal-fired power plant, Godby said, such plants require time to get up and running. They’re not very good for the kind of on-the-spot backup power Trump was referring to when he addressed the Davos conference.
Plans to close coal-fired power plants are expected to be delayed due to rising demand. This is already happening with plants in Maryland, Indiana and Illinois.
S&P Global analyst Dan Thompson said that for utilities, Trump’s comments were “a blank check to do whatever you want” in the short term, despite prior efforts to address carbon dioxide emissions and expand renewable energy. .
But Thompson said the three companies driving the data center boom – Google, Amazon and Microsoft – are the largest corporate buyers of renewable energy and have made commitments to reach carbon neutrality.
This signals relief, not a comeback, for coal.
“It is natural gas that will benefit most from increased electricity generation,” Seiple said. “It’s very unlikely that we’ll see new coal plants because of how expensive they are.”
Could Trump tap public coal reserves?
According to the Energy Information Administration, the US has the world’s largest coal reserves – enough to last for more than 400 years at current mining rates.
The industry relies heavily on reserves on public lands in the West, particularly the Powder River Basin of Wyoming and Montana.
The sale of those reserves has long been politically controversial. In his first term, Trump reversed the ban on government coal sales imposed under former President Barack Obama.
The Biden administration also sought to ban new coal sales in the final days of its administration. It was estimated that this decision would result in the mines’ federal coal reserves being exhausted as early as 2035 – decades earlier than if the lease had continued.
When Senator John Barrasso asked Trump’s Interior Secretary nominee Doug Burgum about the ban during his confirmation hearing, Burgum responded that he would “absolutely” work with the Wyoming Republican to overturn the ban.
Burgum also promised to work with Montana Republican Senator Steve Daines to advance a pending coal mine expansion permit in the state to the legislature.
“We have power shortage and especially we have baseload shortage. We know we have the technology to deliver clean coal,” Burgum said. He noted efforts in North Dakota — where he was governor — to capture and sequester carbon dioxide from a coal-to-gas plant that would otherwise destroy the planet. Will heat it.
Research has shown that carbon capture is feasible and useful for boosting old oil field production. Scientists have questioned the practicality of commercial-scale sustainable sequestration of carbon dioxide from burning coal and other fossil fuels.
US coal exports rise
Global coal production was expected to reach 10 billion tons (9 billion metric tons) last year, according to the International Energy Agency.
The greatest demand is in Asia, where countries including China continue to build new coal-fired power plants as their economies expand.
American coal companies have tried to capitalize on that growth by exporting more coal. They have been hampered by lack of access to ports on the west coast.
To avoid opposition to new ports, Republicans during Trump’s first term considered a plan to use West Coast military bases or other federal properties as fossil fuel export sites, but never acted on it.
Last year, US exports were expected to top 100 million tonnes for the second consecutive year. Top destinations include India, China, Brazil, Japan and the Netherlands.
“The global appetite for coal is strong and U.S. producers are ready to respond to that need,” said Rich Nolan, president of the National Mining Association.
Overall US coal production is projected to continue to decline.
“It’s hard to break out of a long-term trend,” Godby said.